Monday, November 10, 2008

The Great Depression 2009

Okay, I’m re-thinking some things. Actually a lot of things. The worst part about these blogs now, is that I seem to have more to say than I can actually put into words. More than I can type. Life is happening faster than I can nearly comprehend. More than I can say.

There’s the personal things… about the adjustments of the human heart. Why one man is better than another in a woman’s heart. What the mechanisms are that allow us to “move on” and love again. The wanton of the soul…to wander this world. To ask the big questions about ourselves and our fellow travelers. To discover: ourselves, our world, and our hearts.

There’s the practical things: How can I make this fit into that? Or, I really wanted to be this..and somehow I’ve become that. How do I get there from here?
There’s the existential questions: What is God? What is the nature of the soul? What role does religion play in our lives, in the lives of others, in our decisions, and in our everyday life? Does God listen to me when I talk to him? What happens when we die? Do we die? Do we just “exchange planes”?

Tonight, I’m thinking about re-assessing something I put in another blog some time ago. I’m afraid that I’ve been a little too “sugary” about my predictions of our economic futures. I said (many months ago) that we were going to enter into a very “interesting” economic time. Oh, “Interesting” don’t nearly cover it. And I didn’t think we would actually hit an actual “depression”…but folks, here’s the truth.. we are headed directly for that iceburg… and many of us are not nearly prepared for it. Here it comes, baby!

Why? Well, most of the modern economists keep saying that though this will be a “severe” recession, not a one of them (well, at least the main-stream ones) will use the word, DEPRESSION. The word brings up those old pictures in our minds… grainy black and whites of disheveled men standing in soup lines with withered faces and shrunken bodies. We tell ourselves it just could not ever happen again. Could it?

I mean, cmon here… this is not 1929! People will not have to eat cooked squirrels or beg for food on the streets! This is just not going to happen! Well, no.. I do not think it will come to that… but I’m afraid I see something that comes mighty close to this.

Why I think what I think: Okay.. this is the crux of the biscuit (as Frank Zappa would want to say).. is how do we handle “capitalism” in the new world? Once upon a time, there was a pretty good animated movie “short” from Walt Disney (of all people) that explained the whole idea behind capitalism pretty well. The idea went something like this:

Okay. I discovered that I like time. Oddly enough I built a new thing called a “watch”… oooohhh. It has a big hand and a little hand and even counts seconds, which I love. I put this little gizmo thing together with gears and springs and things.. and it works pretty well. It can tell you that it’s nearly suppertime, or time for me to get up in the morning. Now, my next-door neighbor notices me looking at my wrist on my way out to work one day and asks, “what is that?” I tell him it’s a time piece and I call it “a watch”.

Well, he’s all excited about this, and starts thinking to himself…”hmm.. I bet I could use something like that too.” So, he asks, “Where did you get that watch-thingy?” You tell him that you made it yourself. He says, “well.. do you think you could make me one?” You say, “well, it took me quite a bit of time...” He says, “Well, I tell you what. You build the thing for me and I’ll pay you for it.”
Suddenly, you start thinking this is a good thing. I’ll make some money off from this watch thingy I built. So you make another one. Meanwhile, your neighbor starts raving about what a cool thingy this wristwatch is…see? Even tells time! Well, then suddenly more and more people want your watch thingy to adorn their wrists. Well, orders start piling in for everyone in the neighborhood to buy from you this thingy. So many if fact, you have to hire some help to fill all these orders.

Well, to hire help..you need help with taxes, forms, Social Security, Health Care. Also, if you’re going to do this right..you need a store front, with heat and lights, and a cash register. Add to that, advertising (so the thingys will get sold in markets far away from just your neighborhood). And of course, good tools (things like automated machines) to help speed the process of making the thingys. So, initially you’re going to need some capital to start up your business of watch thingys.

You go to your old Uncle John (who you know has a lot of money sitting around), and ask him for some “investment capital” to help in the start up. For him lending you money, you promise him a “cut” or a piece of the profit pie. Uncle John is thrilled, because instead of just sitting in his matress(which he has to pay taxes on), he now owns a business with you and for doing next to nothing, collects money off from you labors (until, of course the loan is paid off). Everyone wins and everyone is making money.

Capitalism at it’s heart is like a well-oiled machine that works very well. UNTIL… that is….

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